Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 808
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 808 · OAK → HNL
departs 4:12 PM PT · arrives 7:53 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 11/7 20%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 29%
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11 21%
Thu 11/12 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.