Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 8504 · BWI → GSO
departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.