Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8510
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Today
WN 8510 · SMF → LAS
departs 9:51 PM PT · arrives 11:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 2 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.