Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 977
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 977 · SNA → SMF
departs 4:53 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 27%
Thu 11/12 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.