Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2856 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

AA 2856 · DFW → GEG

departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 11:44 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2856 · DFW → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?