Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2951 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

AA 2951 · DFW → LAS

departs 12:18 PM CT · arrives 1:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2951 · DFW → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?