Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 381 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

AA 381 · DFW → LGA

departs 11:42 AM CT · arrives 4:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 381 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?