Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2654 LANDED 7:37 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, November 9 Today

AS 2654 · SBD → CVG

took off 1:02 PM PT · landed 7:37 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

CVG (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2654 · SBD → CVG

Odds over time