Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2685 LANDED 1:13 AM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, November 9 Today

AS 2685 · AFW → SMF

took off 12:13 AM CT · landed 1:13 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

AFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2685 · AFW → SMF

Odds over time