F9 2857 · LAX → SFO

departs 8:43 AM PT · arrives 10:13 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2857 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?