Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3539
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
MQ 3539 · DFW → AMA
departs 10:37 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 22%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 25%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into AMA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.