Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3901
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
MQ 3901 · ORD → ATW
departs 10:59 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sun 11/8 13%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 20%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12 19%
Fri 11/13 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.