Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3968
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
MQ 3968 · DFW → SPS
departs 10:56 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 11/8 15%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 21%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12 15%
Fri 11/13 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SPS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SPS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SPS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.