Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3153
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 3153 · SAN → SBP
departs 1:11 PM PT · arrives 2:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12 24%
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.