OO 3251 · SNA → SFO

took off 10:23 AM PT · expected to land 11:26 AM PT (scheduled 7:47 AM PT → 9:26 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
74%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ 7am departures from SNA are usually not late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3251 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?