Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
OO 3464 · AUS → SAN
departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 5:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 17%
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12 21%
Fri 11/13 23%
Sat 11/14 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.