Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3489
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 3489 · AUS → SAN
departs 1:42 PM CT · arrives 2:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/8 31%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 16%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12 17%
Fri 11/13 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.