Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 3946 · SNA → SEA
departs 11:59 AM PT · arrives 2:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/8 31%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 23%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12 29%
Fri 11/13 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.