Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4921
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 4921 · MRY → PHX
departs 12:45 PM PT · arrives 3:46 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 11/8 16%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 20%
Wed 11/11 23%
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
MRY is prone to delays
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft forecast at MRY that day
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,433 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.