Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 4997 · SEA → LAX
departs 1:35 PM PT · arrives 4:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 20%
Wed 11/11 21%
Thu 11/12 24%
Fri 11/13 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.