OO 5417 · FAT → SFO

departs 8:13 AM PT · arrives 9:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6.33333 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5417 · FAT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?