Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5480
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
OO 5480 · SMF → SFO
departs 2:10 PM PT · arrives 3:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11 32%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 52%
Sat 11/14 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.