Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 5496 · ORD → SBN
departs 2:00 PM CT · arrives 4:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 11/8 25%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 31%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.