Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 5736 · SFO → TUS
departs 12:09 PM PT · arrives 3:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 11/8 20%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 21%
Wed 11/11 33%
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.