Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
OO 5781 · MSN → ORD
departs 2:56 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/8 28%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 42%
Wed 11/11 33%
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 9 mi
Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.