Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
OO 5820 · LAX → SMF
departs 1:14 PM PT · arrives 2:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 11%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12 14%
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.