OO 5842 · MFE → IAH

departs 5:14 PM CT · arrives 6:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.45 in

IAH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5842 · MFE → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?