Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1505 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

UA 1505 · DEN → EWR

departs 2:17 PM MT · arrives 7:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±10 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1505 · DEN → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?