Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1590 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

UA 1590 · EWR → DFW

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1590 · EWR → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?