UA 1684 · SFO → LIH

took off 7:08 PM PT · expected to land 10:23 PM HT (scheduled 6:50 PM PT → 10:32 PM HT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

LIVE

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LIH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1684 · SFO → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?