Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1763 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

UA 1763 · SAN → SFO

departs 1:39 PM PT · arrives 3:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1763 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?