UA 1924 · SFO → STL

departs 4:22 PM PT · arrives 10:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1924 · SFO → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?