Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1949 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

UA 1949 · SMF → IAH

departs 1:15 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1949 · SMF → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?