Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1950 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

UA 1950 · LAX → EWR

departs 1:26 PM PT · arrives 9:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±6 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1950 · LAX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?