Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2433 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

UA 2433 · EWR → BOS

departs 4:22 PM ET · arrives 5:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±14 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2433 · EWR → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?