UA 2721 · LAS → SFO

took off 6:20 PM PT · expected to land 7:26 PM PT (scheduled 6:08 PM PT → 7:53 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2721 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?