Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2834 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

UA 2834 · EWR → ORD

departs 4:41 PM ET · arrives 6:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±14 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2834 · EWR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?