Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 297 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9

UA 297 · ORD → BNA

departs 3:39 PM CT · arrives 5:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 297 · ORD → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?