UA 3871 · IAD → INT

departs 8:02 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at INT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to INT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 8pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into INT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

INT (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3871 · IAD → INT

Odds over time

How late will it get to INT?