UA 539 · DFW → IAH

took off 12:34 PM CT · expected to land 1:24 PM CT (scheduled 11:59 AM CT → 1:17 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
46%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 539 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?