Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8180 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9 Tomorrow

UA 8180 · SFO → SEA

departs 4:18 PM PT · arrives 6:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±11 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8180 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?