Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8272 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 9 Today

UA 8272 · ORD → TPA

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

TPA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8272 · ORD → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?