UA 98 · LAX → MEL

took off 11:48 PM PT · expected to land 9:27 AM AEDT (scheduled 10:44 PM PT → 9:10 AM AEDT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MEL more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MEL?

LIVE

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MEL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MEL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 98 · LAX → MEL

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEL?