Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 1136 · OKC → PHX
departs 11:41 AM CT · arrives 1:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sun 11/8 12%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 15%
Fri 11/13 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.