Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 1241 · TPA → SJU
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 5:07 PM AT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 19%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 29%
Fri 11/13 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at SJU that day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.