Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 1315 · PHX → SAT
departs 8:45 PM MT · arrives 12:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 41%
Fri 11/13 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.