Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 1429 · STL → AUS
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.