Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 2161 · HOU → SAN
departs 10:11 PM CT · arrives 11:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11 32%
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 35%
Sat 11/14 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 733 ft Visibility 5.33333 mi Precip 0.07 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.