Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 223
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 223 · PHX → SNA
departs 9:27 AM MT · arrives 9:52 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 11/8 13%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9am departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.