Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 239
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 239 · OAK → SEA
departs 7:52 PM PT · arrives 9:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 56%
Fri 11/13 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.